Geo-Spatial Economic Assessment of the Potential Development of Bioenergy Combined with Direct Air Carbon Capture (BEDAC) in the USA.

This study presents a geo-spatial and economic framework to localize future bioenergy power plants combined with direct air capture (BEDAC). This framework is applied to two regions in the USA to assess the optimal use of forest biomass and in situ carbon sequestration under three specific short-term sequestration targets. Results show that there are many locations that have both the necessary biomass and geology required for storage. The Southeast has greater potential for forestry biomass due to both the rate of growth and forested areas, but the sequestration potential is mostly limited to a CO2 solution in saline aquifers. The Pacific Northwest has more sequestration potential than the Southeast given the location of managed forests and storage sites in carbonate mineralization in bedrock. The two combined regions have a total potential sequestration of 9.3 GtCO2 for the next 20 years that can be achieved under an implicit carbon value of $249/tCO2.

How the future of the global forest sink depends on timber demand, forest management, and carbon policies.

Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2-5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from -0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.

Forests: Carbon sequestration, biomass energy, or both?

There is a continuing debate over the role that woody bioenergy plays in climate mitigation. This paper clarifies this controversy and illustrates the impacts of woody biomass demand on forest harvests, prices, timber management investments and intensity, forest area, and the resulting carbon balance under different climate mitigation policies. Increased bioenergy demand increases forest carbon stocks thanks to afforestation activities and more intensive management relative to a no-bioenergy case. Some natural forests, however, are converted to more intensive management, with potential biodiversity losses. Incentivizing both wood-based bioenergy and forest sequestration could increase carbon sequestration and conserve natural forests simultaneously. We conclude that the expanded use of wood for bioenergy will result in net carbon benefits, but an efficient policy also needs to regulate forest carbon sequestration.